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If Manchester United and Newcastle United do not advance past the group stage of this year’s Champions League, the Premier League may lose an additional spot in the competition for the following season.
Next season, the group stages of the Champions League will undergo a change with the implementation of a ‘Swiss-style’ format. Additionally, the number of participating clubs will increase to 36 with the addition of four new teams.
This indicates that there will be four additional spots available, and Uefa will assign two of them to the countries that had the best overall performance in Europe during the previous season.
The average score is determined by Uefa’s association club coefficient table, which divides the total number of points earned throughout the year by the number of clubs participating.
Uefa gives points for victories in the group stage and for advancing to the round of 16. If this system had been used last season, England would have placed in the top two, along with the Netherlands. The Premier League’s ranking was elevated by Manchester City’s Champions League triumph and West Ham’s Europa Conference League victory.
This season, there are eight Premier League teams participating in European competitions. The performances of Manchester United and Newcastle United in the Champions League group stage may impact the average coefficient of England’s association clubs.
At the moment, England holds the fourth position in the current season rankings, trailing behind Germany, Spain, and Italy. Typically, teams from the Premier League would earn more points due to their performance in the knockout stages of the Champions League. However, there is concern that Erik ten Hag and Eddie Howe’s teams may be eliminated early.
To keep their chances of advancing in the Champions League alive, Manchester United must defeat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford on Tuesday. However, even if they do win, they will still need other results to be in their favor. If United manages to beat Bayern, they can only secure a spot in the last-16 if the match between FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray ends in a tie. But if either Copenhagen or Galatasaray comes out victorious, United will be eliminated from the competition, regardless of their own outcome against Bayern.
Newcastle needs to defeat AC Milan on their own turf and rely on Paris Saint-Germain to either tie or be defeated by Borussia Dortmund, who have already secured a spot in the last-16. If Newcastle does not achieve this, they will not advance to the knockout stage.
If PSG wins, they will advance to the last-16. They can also advance with a draw if AC Milan wins at St James’ Park. However, if they lose and AC Milan and Newcastle draw, they will still advance. Milan will secure a spot in the last-16 if they defeat Newcastle and Dortmund defeats PSG.
If they place fourth in the group and do not advance to the Europa League play-off round, their coefficient would be greatly affected. If Newcastle ties with Milan and has the same number of points as them, they will move down to the Europa League, but if they come in third place and win against Bayern, they will secure a spot in the Europa League regardless of the result of the Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray match.
The Premier League’s rating for this season is expected to receive a boost from several teams who are likely to continue their European campaigns after Christmas. Manchester City and Arsenal have both secured spots in the last-16 of the Champions League as group winners.