“An unsettling pattern at Manchester United that will likely concern Erik ten Hag”

Big numbers surround Manchester United. They did long before Friday’s announcement of a task force to assess whether to rebuild or redevelop Old Trafford. It might cost the club some £1bn, though the overall project will prove still more expensive, with talk of local-council investment in infrastructure, public-private partnerships and other funds.

Erik ten Hag should not be concerned about these numbers. The large numbers that he tries to minimize or explain away are the result of his plan. These numbers, which are 23, 27, 16, 17, 22, 23, 22, 15, 17, and 16, are the shots taken by the last 10 opponents of United. Even though this includes League Two Newport, who had 17 shots, it is still a disappointing number. In the last six league games, United has faced a total of 134 shots. Three of those games were against teams that are expected to finish in the bottom half of the league. This season, United has conceded 20 or more shots in 10 games, including five of the last six. In all competitions, there have only been five games where United’s opponents had less than 10 attempts at goal. The most recent one was against Wigan, a team in the bottom half of League One. After Everton had 23 shots in a game that ended in a 2-0 defeat for them, Sean Dyche commented that he had never seen so many chances against United. Currently, only Sheffield United has faced more shots than United this season.

No matter how you look at the data, it shows that there is a strong case against Ten Hag, particularly in regards to the team’s performance. United was known for their exciting style of play, but it was never meant to result in their own goal being constantly under attack. While United’s results may vary, one thing is certain – their opponents will have numerous chances to score, usually around 15 to 25 per game. Interestingly, Andre Onana may end his first season at Old Trafford as both the goalkeeper with the most clean sheets and the most saves in the Premier League.

This implies there is an issue with Ten Hag’s approach. However, he would not agree. He stated on Saturday, “We are defending against poor opportunities. At times, we are defending against extremely low opportunities and we are able to do so successfully.”

If there is some truth to this, having Jonny Evans and Raphael Varane as reliable defenders in the penalty-box can cause Manchester United to become defensively vulnerable due to their slower pace. This has been evident throughout the season, especially when the team has been left exposed by their midfield and subsequently overwhelmed. In an attempt to rectify this, the team has shifted to a more compact defensive strategy to avoid counter-attacks, but it has also forced the rest of the team to drop deeper. This shift may have been in response to the realization that allowing opposition teams the freedom to run at Old Trafford has been causing harm, as seen in matches against Wolves and Fulham.

Ten Hag has not acknowledged United’s overall performance. They were strong defensively at Anfield, withstanding 34 shots from Liverpool, and also held their own at the Etihad Stadium against Manchester City’s 27 shots. However, this has not been the case for most of the season.

Reworded: Despite having only 20 low-quality opportunities, there is still a chance of conceding which is an obvious statement. However, compared to the top four teams, they have only conceded 20 shots in a top-flight game three times this season.

Although Ten Hag discussed expected goals during the conversation on Saturday, it is clear that not all of the chances allowed by United can be disregarded as long-distance, overly optimistic attempts. In fact, in their last 16 league games, United have only limited their opponents to an expected goals (xG) of less than 1.1 on two occasions. When facing United, Everton had an impressive xG of 4.32 but still lost both games without scoring. This puts United in seventh place for the highest expected goals against in the league.

There are circumstances that lessen the impact. The defense has been constantly changing, primarily due to injuries, resulting in a lack of consistency. Important players have also been absent. Manchester United has been lacking a designated player for the left-back position for a significant portion of the season.

Since January, United have been playing with Casemiro and Kobbie Mainoo as a duo of defensive midfielders, abandoning the previous experiment of positioning two No 8s higher on the field. However, in the eight games they have played together, United have allowed 166 shots. Ten Hag expressed frustration with United’s win at Villa Park, describing it as a “tennis match.” This is reflective of their overall style of play, as they struggle to shut down or control their opponents. This lower possession rate, which was evident in both the game on Saturday and throughout the season, has also led to opponents having more possession than they are used to against United. This is a factor in why their leads may appear precarious.

We must consider Ten Hag’s strategy and the chaos that often occurs during United’s games. Despite what he may claim, it’s hard to believe that the plan was to have so many shots fired at their goal. As the manager with a numerical surname, it’s unlikely that Ten Hag intended for the opposition to have an average of 20 shots per game.

Source: independent.co.uk