Live updates: Rishi Sunak predicts significant losses in upcoming critical election in Rwanda.

Live updates: Rishi Sunak predicts significant losses in upcoming critical election in Rwanda.

Conservative dissenter Robert Jenrick is “ready” to cast a vote against the proposed legislation for Rwanda put forth by Rishi Sunak.

Rishi Sunak is confronting his most significant personal challenge as prime minister in the House of Commons this evening as he strives to salvage his key Rwanda initiative.

A bloc of 60 conservative Members of Parliament, supported by Boris Johnson, issued a warning to the Prime Minister’s deportation bill by proposing amendments to make it more stringent on Tuesday night.

Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith resigned from their positions as deputy chairmen after aligning with the rebellious faction. Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick and several others declared their willingness to oppose the government in the impending vote on Wednesday.

If approximately 30 rebels follow through with their threat, Mr. Sunak will experience a humiliating defeat, potentially leading to another Tory leadership competition or even a general election in a matter of weeks.

A trusted associate of Sunak stated to The Independent that the possibility of a premature election, which would likely result in a Labour triumph, will cause the rebels to retreat, giving the PM and his struggling government another chance to continue their battle.

However, Jacob Rees-Mogg encouraged other members of the Conservative party to “support the rebels”, stating that if flights depart for Rwanda this year, Chancellor Sunak could prevent the predicted loss in the election.


The minister claims that ‘thousands’ will be sent back to Rwanda.

The Minister of Illegal Migration, Michael Tomlinson, stated that the Rwanda program would initially have a small capacity, but would eventually be able to deport thousands of asylum seekers.

“It will start off with small numbers and then it will move into the thousands, exactly as happened with Albania,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, adding: “It’ll start off in the hundreds and then it will increase into the thousands.”

Andy Gregory17 January 2024 11:47


The Tory member who resigned in protest over the Rwanda bill suggests he may support the bill.

A member of the Conservative Party who stepped down as deputy chairman in order to oppose the Rwanda bill has suggested that he may support it during tonight’s vote.

Brendan Clarke-Smith, who supported changes proposed on Tuesday evening to enhance the bill, stated that he will wait and see what is said today before determining his vote.

He stated to the Telegraph, “We will wait and see their response today. The third reading is a separate matter from amendments, so we will observe what occurs with that.”

Archie Mitchell17 January 2024 11:35


Sunak called for the withdrawal of the Rwanda vote and the creation of a “superior bill”.

Conservative members on the right side of the political spectrum are urging the government to postpone tonight’s vote on the bill regarding Rwanda. They are advising the government to take more time to strengthen the bill if they are unable to support any proposed changes.

Former immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, stated on Tuesday that there is potential for a “superior bill” to be created. He suggested that the government could postpone current proceedings and quickly introduce a revised and enhanced bill.

According to John Hayes, the leader of the Common Sense Group, he advised The Independent that the government has the option to create their own amendment or postpone the vote. It would be a prudent decision for them to take.

Adam Forrest17 January 2024 11:23


Tory dissidents unimpressed with Sunak’s commitment to civil service

Michael Tomlinson, the migration minister for Rishi Sunak’s administration, stated that the government is considering adjusting the civil service code to serve as a reminder for officials to consistently adhere to ministerial choices.

Tory rebels have expressed worries that the Rwanda law may not adequately prevent last-minute rule 39 injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).

However, a senior member of the Conservative party who opposed them told The Independent they were not overly satisfied with the guarantee that the code would be altered.

According to The Times, although the bill grants ministers the authority to disregard injunctions regarding deportations to Rwanda, Mr. Tomlinson had previously cautioned that doing so would violate international law.

Adam Forrest17 January 2024 11:12


According to a supporter of Sunak, Tory rebels are expected to back down.

Adam Forrest, our correspondent on politics, provides the following report:

A trusted associate of Rishi Sunak has stated that the majority of the Tory rebels will back down during the significant vote on Wednesday evening.

The Independent was informed by a prominent member of the Conservative Party that they will back down during the third reading. They will conform and vote in favor of the bill. Choosing to vote against it would result in an immediate general election, making it unlikely for them to take that action.

A Conservative Member of Parliament who supports Mr. Sunak stated: “Many of us recognize that it would be politically reckless to try to defeat the government by opposing one of its major policies in this matter.” Damian Green, leader of the ‘One Nation’ moderate branch of the Conservative party, noted that last night’s amendment votes marked the peak of the right-wing rebellion.

Andy Gregory17 January 2024 11:04


Despite a 4% rise, Jeremy Hunt affirms that his strategy to decrease inflation is effective.

The latest report from the Office for National Statistics shows that the inflation rate for the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) has increased to 4 per cent in December, compared to 3.9 per cent in November. This is the first rise since February and is driven by higher prices of tobacco and alcohol, according to data from government sources.

According to the chancellor, inflation does not decrease in a consistent manner, as seen in increases in the US, France, and Germany.

Hunt affirms that the strategy to decrease inflation is effective, despite a 4% rise.

Andy Gregory17 January 2024 10:47


Interpretation | The conflict within the Tory party goes beyond preventing the arrival of small boats.

John Rentoul, our primary political analyst, wrote in his most recent column:

The Conservative Party is on the verge of surrendering. The recent conflicts on Tuesday revolve around the intricate legal aspects of the government’s strategy to relocate asylum seekers to Rwanda – yet at its core, it is a reflection of how individuals cope with defeat.

To comprehend the discussions and decisions in the House of Commons on Tuesday and Wednesday, we must shift our focus from parliamentary protocol to sports psychology. This pertains to the approach of a team that is significantly behind and must accept the likelihood of defeat.

In sports, athletes have two primary approaches when faced with challenges. One is to encourage each other to strive for a remarkable comeback despite the obstacles. The other is to direct blame towards a specific member, often the goalkeeper, for their team’s losing performance.

Isaac Levido, the Australian strategist leading the Conservative election campaign, urged the members of the 1922 Committee to unite on Monday. He emphasized that divided parties cannot succeed and stressed the importance of taking the election seriously. Levido expressed his determination to win and reassured the committee that he wouldn’t be involved if he didn’t believe in their chances.

However, Levido’s appeal essentially acknowledged that the party had already chosen to pursue a strategy of blaming each other.

Andy Gregory17 January 2024 10:18


The Tory minister is claiming that despite a significant rebellion against the plan for Rwanda, the party remains united.

The Conservative minister maintains that the party remains “united” despite facing a significant revolt over their proposal for Rwanda.

Andy Gregory17 January 2024 10:09


How many members of parliament from the Tory party are willing to vote against the Rwanda bill?

At this point, only six members of the Conservative Party have publicly stated that they are willing to vote against Rishi Sunak’s bill regarding Rwanda during the critical third reading vote tonight.

The co-founders of the New Conservatives, Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates, have stated that they are contemplating casting their votes against the bill. This decision is also shared by Marco Longhi, who identifies as a right-winger.

Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick and his former colleague Suella Braverman both stated that they were willing to vote against the government. Simon Clarke, another former minister, also declared that he was serious about voting against the bill if it remained unchanged.

However, approximately 60 Conservative Members of Parliament rebelled and voted for amendments last night, marking the largest rebellion during Mr. Sunak’s time as Prime Minister. Rebels have boldly stated to The Independent that there is still a chance that roughly half of those MPs may vote against the bill tonight, which would be approximately 30 MPs and could result in a defeat for the government.

The majority of those at Westminster predict that Mr Sunak will barely pass the vote. According to The Telegraph, approximately 15 Conservatives may oppose the bill, and The Mail stated that Tory whips anticipate around 12 rebel MPs.

Adam Forrest17 January 2024 09:54


Peter Bone’s girlfriend ‘proud’ to have disgraced ex-MP on the campaign trail with her

Peter Bone’s significant other has expressed her pride in having the ex-Conservative MP join her on the campaign trail, despite his expulsion from parliament due to sexual misconduct towards a staff member.

Helen Harrison, who is running in the by-election to take the place of Mr Bone, also stated that the committee that determined he had exposed himself to an aide and physically assaulted him had made a mistake.

According to our political expert, Archie Mitchell, the following is true:

Andy Gregory17 January 2024 09:45