Information regarding the planned train strikes in January and February, including details on potential disruptions, can be found here.

The disagreement between Aslef, the union representing train drivers, and 14 train companies in England has been ongoing for three years.

The union has declared their initial strikes for 2024, as there is no resolution in sight for the ongoing dispute regarding salary and work schedules.

Aslef train operators will engage in a gradual work stoppage, occurring regionally throughout the week from Tuesday, January 30th to Monday, February 5th. It is anticipated that numerous train services will be suspended daily.

The impact will be worsened due to a nine-day prohibition on working extra hours from January 29th to February 6th.

A different five-day strike organized by Aslef that targeted LNER between February 5 and 9 has been cancelled. According to a representative for the train company, “We are pleased to hear that the possibility of prolonged disruptions to our services has been eliminated.”

“We urge Aslef to collaborate with us in order to reach a resolution for this ongoing conflict that has detrimental effects on the rail industry.”

Here are the main inquiries and responses.

Aslef is currently in a disagreement with the train companies that have been hired by the government to offer railway services. The involved companies are:

Intercity operators:

London commuter operators:

Operators with a focus on the Midlands and northern regions of England.

ScotRail, Transport for Wales, Transport for London (including the Elizabeth Line), Merseyrail and “open-access” operators such as Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo are not involved. But their services are likely to be extremely crowded on stretches where they duplicate strike-hit companies.

Starting on Monday, January 29th, there will be a ban on overtime.

On Tuesday, January 30th, the train services affected are South Western Railway, Southeastern, and GTR, which includes Southern, Gatwick Express, Great Northern, and Thameslink.

On Wednesday, January 31st, Northern and TransPennine Express will be in operation.

On Thursday, February 1st, there will be no strike, but the ban on overtime will remain in effect.

On Friday, February 2nd, Greater Anglia, C2C, and LNER (with an additional strike the following week) will all be operational.

On Saturday, February 3rd, the train services operating in the West Midlands region include West Midlands Trains, Avanti West Coast, and East Midlands Railway.

On Sunday, February 4th, there will be no strike but the overtime ban will still be in effect.

On Monday, February 5th, Great Western, CrossCountry, and Chiltern will be affected by the LNER strike, which will continue until February 9th.

On Tuesday, February 6th, there will be no strike, but the overtime ban will continue for one more day.

Using the information from previous rolling strikes, here are the expected outcomes if the transport secretary, Mark Harper, does not take any action to implement a minimum service level.

These predictions were made by The Independent after examining past strikes and should be verified with each specific rail company.

There will be no trains on the Great Northern line on January 30th.

On January 30th, there will be no trains running on the Thameslink line.

On January 30, there will be no train services in the Southeastern region.

On January 30th, Southern Railway will only be running a shuttle service without any stops between London Victoria and Gatwick airport. This service will operate from 6am to 11:30pm.

On January 30th, the Gatwick Express service will not be operating. However, the Southern airport shuttle will still be available for transportation.

On January 30th, South Western Railway will have a primary service of four trains per hour connecting London Waterloo and Woking. One train per hour will also travel to Guildford and Basingstoke. A shuttle will be available from Basingstoke to Salisbury. Trains will also operate between Waterloo and Feltham through Richmond and Twickenham. No trains will be running on the Isle of Wight.

On January 31st, there will be no train service.

There will be no train services on TransPennine Express on January 31st.

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On February 2nd, there will be no trains running.

On February 2nd, Greater Anglia will have a limited service that connects London Liverpool Street to Norwich, Ipswich, Colchester, Southend Victoria, Cambridge, and Stansted airport.

On February 2nd, LNER will have scheduled trains running on main routes connecting London King’s Cross to Leeds, York, Newcastle, and Edinburgh.

On February 3rd, Avanti West Coast will not have any trains running. The operator wants to emphasize that services on the days before and after the strike will also be impacted.

On February 3rd, East Midlands Railway announced that there would be no train services. This is not the first time the company has issued a warning against traveling, and they have also stated that there will be no alternative bus services offered.

There will be no train services on West Midlands Railway on February 3rd.

On February 5th, there will be no train services on the Chiltern line.

There will be no train service on February 5th for CrossCountry.

On February 5th, the Great Western Railway will have a main train running between London Paddington and Oxford, Bath, and Bristol. There will also be a connecting train from Bristol to Cardiff. However, there will only be a limited service on the smaller train lines in Devon and Cornwall. The Night Riviera sleeper train from London to Penzance will not be operating for several nights. The Heathrow Express may also be impacted, with a reduced schedule from 7am to 7pm.

Furthermore, apart from the disruption during strike days, trains may also be impacted on the days before and after the strike. During these days, services are expected to be highly congested as passengers adjust their travel plans to avoid the industrial action.

The new law permits the transport secretary to require a minimum level of service (MSLs) on days when there is a strike, which must be at least 40% of the regular service.

To the best of The Independent’s knowledge, no railway company is attempting to enforce the new legislation on the union representing train drivers.

The Transport Select Committee has previously expressed concern about possible unintended outcomes of the law. Iain Stewart, chair of the Conservative party, stated: “There is a possibility that MSLs could further strain relationships between workers and employers, potentially resulting in less reliable services.”

Monday 29 January will be the most disruptive in terms of the number of passengers affected. This disruption specifically targets commuters in southeast England, the majority of whom rely on the affected train operators.

On February 2 and 3, intercity travelers will experience the most impact. This will occur on the East Coast and West Coast main lines, as well as the Midland mainline, due to disruptions from major operators.

It is probable that Sunday, February 4th will experience significant disruptions due to the prohibition on working on rest days, as well as scheduled maintenance on the West Coast main line between Birmingham and Wolverhampton, and on the East Coast main line between London King’s Cross and Stevenage.

The union’s restrictions on working on non-contractual rest days are exempt from the minimum service level regulations.

The ban on working overtime will result in numerous cancellations. Aslef claims that train companies do not have a sufficient number of drivers to fulfill their promises to passengers and businesses without requiring drivers to work on their scheduled days off.

Passengers were advised of possible last-minute changes and cancellations to train schedules during the recent Aslef overtime ban from December 1st to 9th, 2023.

Several railway companies announced proactive cancellations in response to the previous overtime restriction, as outlined below:

On weekends, there will be a significant decrease in train service and there will also be reduced train schedules during weekdays.

Chiltern: Majority of routes experiencing significant service reductions, and several branch lines will have no train service. “All routes will have earlier than usual service end times.”

The Gatwick Express service will not be operating due to the overtime ban. However, Southern trains will still be running between London Victoria and Gatwick airport during the industrial action.

The London Northwestern Railway and West Midlands Railway have announced that the branch lines connecting Bletchley and Bedford, Watford Junction and St Albans Abbey, and Leamington Spa and Nuneaton will be closed for most, if not all, days.

The Southern train schedule will be adjusted with a reduced number of services. Some services may have delayed start and end times compared to normal.

Thameslink issued a warning stating that a modified timetable with decreased frequency will be in effect.

Numerous trains departing on the first day were unable to run, such as those operated by South Western Railway from London Waterloo to Southampton; Great Western Railway from London Paddington to Weston-super-Mare through Bristol and Carmarthen via Cardiff and Swansea; and TransPennine Express connections from Manchester and Newcastle to Edinburgh. Additionally, several services running from Manchester to Leeds and Hull were also affected.

Some train operators do not consider Sunday as a working day, so the ban on rest-day working will greatly affect operations on 4 February.

Certain stations may have restrictions on boarding or disembarking trains in order to prevent overcrowding.

Once more, these are projections based on past occurrences.

The London Heathrow airport was always accessible via the Elizabeth Line and the Tube.

The strike on Tuesday, January 30th will have a major impact on travelers at London Gatwick. All trains at Gatwick and Thameslink are expected to stop running. However, those traveling between London, Gatwick, and Brighton will still have a decent amount of train options.

On Tuesday, December 5th, London Stansted only had an hourly minimal service from the capital. The rest of the days during the overtime ban experienced “service alterations.”

Luton airport will still be reachable by train, specifically from London, every day. On January 30th, during the Thameslink strike, the East Midlands Railway connection will still be in operation. On the other hand, on February 3rd, when there are expected to be no East Midlands Railway trains running, Thameslink will be running as usual.

On Saturday, February 3rd, Birmingham Airport will most likely not be reachable by train, except for those coming from Birmingham New Street on Transport for Wales.

On Wednesday 31 January, it is predicted that traveling to Manchester airport by train will be difficult, with the exception of an hourly connection provided by Transport for Wales between central Manchester, Chester, and North Wales.

On strike days, there may be difficulties with connecting journeys between London St Pancras International and Paris, Brussels, and Amsterdam. However, trains will still operate as usual for these routes. Specifically, expect challenges on Tuesday, January 30 due to Thameslink and Southeastern being out of service, and on Saturday, February 3 when East Midlands Railway services are not expected to run.

According to the most recent Aslef Journal, Mick Whelan, the general secretary, expressed to members that train drivers are tired and annoyed with their employers’ lack of good faith in negotiations. The employers proposed a plan through the Rail Delivery Group, fully aware that it would be rejected.

They deserve it.”

“Aslef members, who are essential workers that have kept our country functioning during the pandemic, are simply requesting a fair and reasonable agreement. They have earned it.”

“We have not had any meetings with Mark Harper, the Secretary of Transportation, since December 2022. We have also not had a meeting with Huw Merriman, the Minister of Rail, since January. Additionally, we have not received any communication from our employers since April.”

“We have consistently stated our readiness to engage in negotiations, but it is important for the government and Train Operating Companies (TOCs) to realize that this disagreement cannot be resolved by pressuring our members into accepting unfavorable terms and conditions of employment.”

A representative from the Rail Delivery Group stated that strikes negatively affect both individuals and their means of support. It is especially difficult to justify these strikes when taxpayers are currently providing an additional £54 million per week to maintain services after the Covid pandemic.

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“In spite of the significant financial difficulties faced by the railway, drivers have been presented with an opportunity to increase their base salaries to almost £65,000 for a four-day work week without overtime. This amount is well above the national average and considerably higher than the salaries of many of our passengers who are unable to work remotely.”

Rather than engaging in further harmful strikes, we urge the Aslef leaders to collaborate with us in order to find a solution to this conflict and reach a fair agreement that both compensates our employees and implements necessary improvements for more dependable services.

A representative from the Department for Transport expressed disappointment that Aslef is continually focusing on disrupting train travel for those commuting to work, school, or crucial medical appointments.

“Aslf is now the only rail union that is continuing to strike while refusing to put a fair and reasonable offer to its members. The offer that remains on the table and would bring the average train driver’s salary up to £65,000.

It is important for the leaders of Aslef to allow their members to make their own decisions about their future rather than making those decisions for them.

Labour’s shadow rail minister, Stephen Morgan MP, stated that they plan to bring the railways back under public ownership and prioritize passenger interests as contracts come to an end.

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