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The conflict between Aslef, the union for train drivers, and 14 train companies in England has been ongoing for three years.
The union has declared their first strikes for 2024, as the ongoing dispute over wages and work schedules shows no signs of resolution.
Aslef-affiliated train operators will gradually strike in different regions for a week starting from Tuesday, January 30 until Monday, February 5. Each day, numerous trains are expected to be cancelled.
The impact will be worsened due to a nine-day prohibition on working extra hours starting from January 29th until February 6th.
Here are the main queries and responses.
Which railway companies are impacted?
Aslef is currently in conflict with the train companies that have been hired by the government to deliver rail services. These companies include:
Intercity operators:
- Avanti West Coast
- CrossCountry
- East Midlands Railway
- Great Western Railway
- LNER
- TransPennine Express
London commuter operators:
- C2C
- Greater Anglia
- GTR (Gatwick Express, Great Northern, Southern, Thameslink)
- Southeastern
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The railway system in the southwestern region of England, which also includes the Island Line on the Isle of Wight.
Operators with a focus on the Midlands and northern regions of England.
- Chiltern Railways
- Northern Trains
- West Midlands Railway
ScotRail, Transport for Wales, Transport for London (including the Elizabeth Line), Merseyrail and “open-access” operators such as Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo are not involved. But their services are likely to be extremely crowded on stretches where they duplicate strike-hit companies.
Can you provide the schedule for strikes?
Starting on Monday, January 29th, there will be a ban on overtime.
On Tuesday, January 30th, the train services affected are South Western Railway, Southeastern, and GTR (Southern, Gatwick Express, Great Northern, and Thameslink).
On January 31st, Wednesday, Northern and TransPennine Express will be in operation.
There will be no strike on Thursday, February 1st, but the overtime ban will still be in effect.
On Friday, February 2nd, the following train companies will be affected: Greater Anglia, C2C, and LNER.
On Saturday, February 3rd, West Midlands Trains, Avanti West Coast, and East Midlands Railway will all be operating.
There will be no strike on Sunday, February 4th, but the ban on overtime will remain in effect.
On Monday, February 5th, the train lines operating are Great Western, CrossCountry, and Chiltern.
On Tuesday, February 6th, there will be no strike, but the overtime ban will continue for one more day.
What will be the probable consequences of the strikes?
According to the previous instances of rolling strikes, these are the anticipated outcomes – unless the transport secretary, Mark Harper, takes action to impose a “minimum service level.” A new law gives him the authority to require a minimum of 40% of the regular service to be maintained on strike days.
The following forecasts are made by The Independent by taking into account past strikes and should be verified with each specific railway company.
Cancelled trains for Great Northern on January 30th.
There will be no train services on Thameslink on January 30th.
On January 30th, there will be no train services on the Southeastern line.
On January 30th, Southern Railway will only be running a direct shuttle service between London Victoria and Gatwick airport from 6am to 11:30pm. There will be no other train services available during this time.
On January 30th, the Gatwick Express will not be running. However, the Southern airport shuttle will still be available for transportation.
On January 30th, South Western Railway will have a main service with a maximum of four trains per hour from London Waterloo to Woking. One train per hour will continue on to Guildford and Basingstoke. Additionally, there will be a shuttle from Basingstoke to Salisbury. Trains will also operate between Waterloo and Feltham via Richmond and Twickenham. Please note that there will be no trains running on the Isle of Wight.
On January 31st, there will be no train services.
On January 31st, TransPennine Express will not be running any train services.
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On February 2nd, there are no trains running.
On February 2nd, Greater Anglia will have a restricted schedule connecting London Liverpool Street to Norwich, Ipswich, Colchester, Southend Victoria, Cambridge, and Stansted airport.
On February 2nd, LNER will run regular trains on key routes connecting London King’s Cross to Leeds, York, Newcastle, and Edinburgh.
On February 3rd, there will be no trains running on Avanti West Coast. The operator has stated that services on the days before and after the strike will also be impacted.
On February 3rd, East Midlands Railway has announced that there will be no train services. This comes after a previous warning from the company stating “Do Not Travel” and that no Rail Replacement Bus services will be available.
There will be no train services on West Midlands Railway on February 3rd.
On February 5th, there will be no train service on the Chiltern line.
The CrossCountry train service will not be operating on February 5th.
On February 5th, the Great Western Railway will have a main route between London Paddington and Oxford, Bath, and Bristol, with a connection from Bristol to Cardiff. However, there will only be a limited service on smaller lines in Devon and Cornwall. The Night Riviera sleeper train from London to Penzance will not operate for several nights. Additionally, the Heathrow Express will likely have changes, with a decreased schedule from 7am to 7pm.
Aside from the impact on strike days, trains on surrounding days may also experience disruptions. These services are expected to be overcrowded as travelers adjust their trips to avoid the strike.
Is there a worst possible day?
Monday 29 January will have the most impact in terms of the number of passengers affected. The targeted group is commuters in southeast England, many of whom rely on the train operators that will be affected.
On February 2 and 3, intercity travelers will experience the most severe disruptions, as the main operators on the East and West Coast main lines, as well as the Midland mainline, will be impacted.
The ban on rest-day working and planned engineering work between Birmingham and Wolverhampton on the West Coast main line, as well as between London King’s Cross and Stevenage on the East Coast main line, are expected to cause significant disruptions on Sunday 4 February.
How will the overtime ban affect the situation?
The regulations for the minimum level of service do not extend to restrictions imposed by unions on working on days off that are not specified in the contract.
As a result of the overtime restriction, numerous cancellations will occur. According to Aslef, train companies do not have a sufficient number of drivers to fulfill their commitments to passengers and businesses without requiring them to work on their scheduled days off.
During the recent Aslef overtime ban from December 1st to 9th, 2023, passengers were advised that trains may be altered or cancelled with short notice.
Multiple railway companies preemptively announced cancellations due to the previous overtime ban, as outlined below:
Weekend services have been significantly reduced, and there are also fewer trains running on weekdays.
Chiltern has experienced a major decrease in service on the majority of its routes, and certain branch lines have no trains running at all. Additionally, all routes will have earlier service closures than usual.
During the overtime ban, the Gatwick Express will not be operating. Instead, Southern trains will run between London Victoria and Gatwick airport during the industrial action.
The following branch lines will be closed on most or all days: Bletchley to Bedford, Watford Junction to St Albans Abbey, and Leamington Spa to Nuneaton for London Northwestern Railway/West Midlands Railway.
Revised schedule will have reduced services and may have delayed start and early end times.
Thameslink issued a warning, stating that there will be a reduced frequency and amended timetable in effect.
On the first day, many early trains were cancelled. They include South Western Railway from London Waterloo to Southampton; Great Western Railway from London Paddington to Weston-super-Mare via Bristol and Carmarthen via Cardiff and Swansea; and TransPennine Express links from Manchester and Newcastle to Edinburgh, as well as a number of Manchester-Leeds-Hull services.
Many train operators still do not consider Sunday as part of the working week. As a result, the ban on rest-day working will greatly affect operations on 4 February.
Certain train stations may limit entry or exit to prevent overcrowding.
What if I have to get to an airport?
Once more, these are forecasts derived from previous occurrences.
Throughout the construction of the Elizabeth Line and the Tube, London Heathrow remained easily accessible.
On Tuesday, January 30th, the first day of strikes, travelers utilizing London Gatwick can expect significant disruptions as all trains on the Gatwick and Thameslink lines are expected to be suspended. However, passengers traveling between London, Gatwick, and Brighton can still expect a decent number of trains running.
On Tuesday, December 5th, London Stansted only had a limited service from the capital, and there were adjustments to the service on all other days due to the overtime ban.
On January 30, during the Thameslink strike, Luton airport will still be reachable by train from London. The East Midlands Railway will be running. However, on February 3, when the East Midlands Railway is not expected to have any services, Thameslink will be in operation.
On Saturday, February 3rd, it is expected that Birmingham airport will not be reachable by train, except for those using Transport for Wales from Birmingham New Street.
On Wednesday, January 31st, Manchester airport may only be reachable by rail through an hourly connection on Transport for Wales from central Manchester, Chester, and North Wales.
Is Eurostar going to be impacted?
On strike days, connecting journeys may be challenging, especially on Tuesday, January 30 when Thameslink and Southeastern are not operating, and on Saturday, February 3 when East Midlands Railway services are expected to be unavailable. However, regular train services between London St Pancras International and Paris, Brussels, and Amsterdam will still operate as usual.
What is the statement from Aslef?
In the most recent edition of the Aslef Journal, Mick Whelan, the general secretary, expressed to members that train drivers are tired and annoyed by their employers’ lack of honest negotiation. The proposal put forth by the Rail Delivery Group was intentionally designed to be rejected.
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“Aslef members, essential workers who played a vital role in keeping our country functioning during the pandemic, are requesting a just and reasonable agreement.”
“We have not had a meeting with Mark Harper, the secretary of transportation, since December 2022. We also have not had a meeting with Huw Merriman, the minister of rail, since January. Additionally, we have not received any communication from the employers since April.”
“We have consistently stated our willingness to negotiate, but it is important for the government and TOCs to realize that this conflict cannot be resolved by pressuring our members to accept unfavorable terms and conditions of employment.”
What is the statement from the rail companies?
A representative from Rail Delivery Group stated that nobody benefits from strikes that disrupt people’s lives and work, especially during a time when taxpayers are already providing an additional £54m per week to support post-Covid services.
Even though the railway is facing major financial difficulties, drivers have been presented with an opportunity to earn a base salary of almost £65,000 for working a four-day week without overtime. This is significantly higher than the national average and exceeds the pay of many passengers who are unable to work remotely.
We urge the Aslef leadership to collaborate with us in finding a solution to this disagreement and to reach a just agreement that benefits our employees and implements necessary changes for improved service reliability, rather than resorting to further harmful industrial action.
What is the government’s statement?
A spokesperson from the Department for Transport expressed their disappointment with Aslef for consistently targeting train commuters who are traveling to work, school, or important medical appointments.
“Aslf is now the only rail union that is continuing to strike while refusing to put a fair and reasonable offer to its members. The offer that remains on the table and would bring the average train driver’s salary up to £65,000.
The leaders of Aslef should allow their members to make their own decisions about their future, rather than making it for them.
What are the proposed actions of the Labour Party if they win the election?
The opposition’s shadow minister for railways, Stephen Morgan MP, stated: “The Labour party intends to return our railways to public ownership when contracts expire, in order to prioritize the needs of the passengers.”
Source: independent.co.uk