AI predicts asteroid has an even higher chance of striking Earth in 2032

Posted on by Olivia Bennett
AI predicts asteroid has an even higher chance of striking Earth in 2032

The risk that the asteroid 2024 YR4 hits Earth has risen to the highest level scientists have ever recorded – now computers say it may be even higher.

Instead of just the 3.1 percent chance of hitting Earth by 2032 that was shared on Wednesday, AI-powered predictions site betideas.com says it forecasts a more than 6 percent chance that the asteroid slams into the planet.

“There’s been a sharp move in the odds on asteroid YR4 colliding with Earth in 3032, now 16/1 from 22/1 yesterday and from 28/1 earlier this month,” said Lee Astley, a spokesperson for the site.

“While experts say the risk remains low, our recent price changes tell a different story and suggests the probability is closer to 6 percent,” Astley noted.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in late December. Its chance of impacting Earth has slowly risen. Now, an AI-based estimate says it could be even higher — despite experts saying they expect it to drop (AP)

NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies said Tuesday that the odds of an impact are now 1 in 32.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet wide — about as wide as the Statue of Liberty is tall — and was first discovered in late December.

“The object had a close approach with Earth on December 25, which is why it became bright enough to be detected in the asteroid surveys,” the center explained.

It was reported to the international clearing house for small body positional measurements in late January. As of January 31, it was hurdling through space 30 million miles away from Earth and moving farther away around the sun. The asteroid will return to “Earth’s neighborhood” in 2028.

It also has a 0.3 percent chance of hitting the moon and not the Earth, resulting in an explosion and another crater.

Should the asteroid hit the Earth on December 22, 2032, the impact would occur somewhere along a corridor of risk extending from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.

With a direct hit, the asteroid could wipe out major cities, releasing about 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb that hit Hiroshima in 1945, according to Space.com. It could result in a tsunami capable of affecting nearby land.

Whereas one the size of Apophis, at about 1,100 feet across and once posed a risk to Earth, could cause widespread destruction.

Should the asteroid strike the Earth in 2032, the impact would occur in a specific risk corridor. The corridor includes areas of ocean, as well as Africa, South Asia, and South America (CNEOS)

This asteroid has surpassed the chance of impact briefly held by Apophis in 2004.

“If the asteroid fell into the ocean, it would produce very large tsunami waves,” Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, told Space.com in 2022. “But if it happened deep in the ocean, the waves would dissipate to quite low amplitude waves before reaching the coast.”

Still, experts say the probability rising was expected.

“No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising. This is the behavior our team expected,” Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, told The Associated Press in an email last week. “To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point.”

Source: independent.co.uk

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