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Research indicates that over 75% of countries could experience a decrease in population by the middle of the 21st century as a result of declining fertility rates.
A study published in The Lancet predicted that by 2100, 198 out of 204 countries, accounting for more than 97% of all countries, will have fertility rates that are too low to maintain their population size over time.
According to the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors study, it is estimated that by the end of the century, half of all children born on Earth will be in sub-Saharan Africa.
The upcoming changes in birth rates and number of live births will significantly alter the worldwide economy and the geopolitical landscape, requiring societies to restructure.
In Western Europe, the anticipated fertility rate by the year 2050 is 1.44, decreasing to 1.37 by 2100.
The overall birth rate in the United Kingdom was 2.19 in 1950, decreasing to 1.85 in 1980 and further dropping to 1.49 in 2021.
This falls short of the necessary 2.1 rate to sustain a stable population without substantial immigration.
The predicted total fertility rate for the UK is 1.38 by 2050 and is expected to decrease to 1.30 by 2100.
The scientists stated that the results present significant difficulties for worldwide economic progress, particularly with a decreasing labor force and aging societies.
It has been stated that nations with declining fertility rates could potentially see a slight increase in population sustainability with the implementation of social policies such as extended parental leave, free childcare, and additional employment rights. However, it is expected that most countries would still fall short of the required levels.
“The significance of this cannot be overstated,” stated Dr. Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author and leading research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine in the United States.
“Projected changes in fertility rates and live births will significantly alter the world economy and global power dynamics, requiring societies to adapt and restructure.”
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There will be a global phenomenon of both increased and decreased birth rates, known as a ‘baby boom’ and ‘baby bust’ respectively, occurring in different countries.
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Professor Stein Emil Vollset, the senior author from IHME, stated that we are experiencing significant societal shifts in the 21st century.
Some countries will experience a population increase while others will see a decrease, causing a worldwide “baby boom” and “baby bust.”
The data indicates that in 2050, Niger would have the highest fertility rate, with an estimated average of five children per woman. However, this could potentially decrease to 2.7 children if universal education goals are achieved.
According to the analysis, South Korea is projected to have the lowest fertility rate of 0.82 children per female by the middle of the 21st century.
According to the researchers, the worldwide average number of children per woman has decreased by more than fifty percent over the last 70 years, going from about five to 2.2 children, as of 2021.
According to experts, it is imperative for countries with low birth rates to adopt strategies that aid individuals in starting families while also providing additional societal benefits like improved quality of life and increased participation of women in the workforce. This should be coupled with inclusive immigration policies.
According to Dr. Bhattacharjee, there is no single solution that will solve everything.
“Measures aimed at increasing birth rates, such as extended parental leave, free childcare, monetary rewards, and additional employment rights, may have a limited impact on raising fertility rates, leaving most countries below the replacement level.”
Many are worried that certain nations may use the decrease in population and lack of solutions as an excuse to implement stricter policies that restrict reproductive rights.
“As many countries experience declining populations, dependence on immigration policies may be necessary in order to maintain sustainable economic growth.”
“The countries within Sub-Saharan Africa possess a crucial asset that aging societies are forfeiting: a youthful majority.”
She stated: “There is a genuine worry that, with diminishing populations and lack of definite solutions, certain countries may use stringent tactics to restrict reproductive rights.”
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It is widely accepted that countries that prioritize women’s rights tend to experience improved health outcomes and faster economic progress.
It is crucial that we promote and safeguard women’s rights and offer support for their personal choices in terms of both family planning and career pursuits.
Source: independent.co.uk
