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A former cabinet secretary has predicted that Labour is headed for a majority of 50-100 seats, with Brexit supporters rallying behind Sir Keir Starmer.
New polling reveals that voters in coastal areas who previously backed the Conservative Party in the 2019 election have now shifted their support to the Labour Party. This change is particularly notable in areas that voted for Brexit.
According to Lord O’Donnell, who served as head of the civil service during the administrations of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, and David Cameron, the Labour party could potentially gain a majority of up to 100 seats in this year’s election.
Lord O’Donnell predicts that Keir Starmer is likely to win a majority of around 100 seats.
According to the BBC’s Today podcast, the polling data shows a steady 18-point lead for Labour. The speaker believes this would result in a majority of 50-100 seats.
However, Lord O’Donnell advised his fellow civil servants to be ready for any potential results.
He stated that we should not make assumptions and one possible reason for the prime minister’s decision to delay is the possibility of things changing.
According to a recent survey by think tank Labour Together, coastal voters prefer Labour over the Tories by a difference of 44 percent to 24 percent, with the Liberal Democrats receiving 11 percent of the vote.
In the past 40 years, coastal communities, which are located within a five-mile radius of the ocean, have consistently favored successful political campaigns. In 1987, three-quarters of these communities supported Margaret Thatcher, and in 1997, Tony Blair’s Labour party gained twice as many seats in seaside areas.
The majority of coastal districts were in favor of Brexit and approximately 70% voted for the Conservative party in the 2019 election.
The current standings seem to have changed once more, as Labour now has a net approval rating of 7 percent among coastal voters, while the Tories have dropped to minus 32 percent.
The survey findings serve as a positive development for the Labour party in a region that was recently labeled as “the overlooked battleground that may determine the outcome of the upcoming election” by the centre-right think tank, Onward.
The polls show that Labour is ahead of the Conservatives by approximately 20 points, according to Rishi Sunak’s party.
According to Josh Williams, the director of strategy for Labour Together, the direction of the coast has a significant impact on the rest of the country.
“Examining the current polls, it is evident that a shift is occurring and there is a potential danger of the Tories being defeated.”
Discussing the upcoming general election, set to take place in October of this year, Lord O’Donnell stated that three challenges must be taken into consideration. These include the impact of tactical voting, which may benefit the Labour party, the potential influence of the Reform party on the Conservative party, and the recent decline of the Scottish National Party, which could benefit Labour.
The recent warning from him serves as a grave reminder for the Conservative Party, as Rishi Sunak’s group is currently trailing behind Labour by approximately 20 points in the polls.
Lord O’Donnell criticized the UK’s elections, stating that the First Past the Post voting system does not make Britain a strong example of democracy.
According to the speaker, even if a candidate receives a large number of votes, they may not necessarily succeed. However, under a more proportionate system, someone like Nigel Farage, who received four million votes in 2015, would have gained more than just one constituency.
Source: independent.co.uk
